Presentation at Almaden Institute 2009 August 18, 2009 Burton Richter Freeman Spogli Institute of International Studies Senior Fellow Paul Pigott Professor in the Physical Sciences Emeritus Stanford University Former Director SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory 1 Outline Energy Issues Transportation Other Storage Issues 2 Reference Scenario: Primary Energy Demand by Region 10 000 Mtoe 8 000 Developing countries become the biggest energy consumers within a decade 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 1980 OECD 1990 2000 2010 Developing countries Source OECD-IEA2008 2020 2030 Transition economies 3 IIASA Projection of Future Energy Demand-Scenario A1 (High Growth) IIASA projections show that energy demand in the 21st century is dominated by the growth of the developing nations. (Source: International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis and World Energy Council Global Energy Perspectives 4 Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Energy Source Percentage of TPES Percent of World CO2 Emissions Oil 34 40 Coal 26 40 Natural Gas 21 20 Nuclear Power 6 0 Hydroelectric 2 0 Combustibles 10 0 Other 1 0 5 Oil Supply and Cost Curve Availability of oil resources as a function of economic price Source: IEA (2005) 6 7 Fraction of Electricity Generation by Fuel 2007 Fuel U.S. World Coal 50% 40% Natural Gas 22% 20% Oil 0% 6% Nuclear 20% 16% Hydroelectric 6% 16% Biomass 1% 1.3% Wind 0.6% 0.5% Geothermal 0.3% 0.3% Solar 0.1% 0.02% Source: EIA 2007; IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 8 CO2 Emissions per unit Energy from Fossil Fuels Source Chemical Formula Combustion Products Relative GHG Emission per Unit of Energy Coal C CO2 1 Gasoline C8 H18 8 CO2 + 9 H2O 0.75 Natural Gas C H4 CO2 + 2 H2O 0.5 9 Cutting Oil & Decarbonizing • Electricity – Fuel Switching + Efficiency (one GWe- yr of coal electricity gives 8 million tonnes of CO2; natural gas gives 1/3 of coal, nuclear, big hydro & Renewables give zero) • Transportation – Efficiency + Electrification (50 mpg for gasoline; decarbonized electricity) • Buildings – Efficiency (80% of building use is electricity) • Industry – Efficiency • Agriculture – ???? (30% of world and 20% of U.S. emissions from this sector) 10 11 Outline Energy Issues Transportation Other Storage Issues 12 13 14 15 16 17 PHEV-40 cuts gasoline by 65% PHEV-100 cuts gasoline by 85% 18 Where does the energy go? How energy flows for a vehicle powered by an internal-combustion engine. The diagram shows the energy uses and losses from a typical vehicle. 19 A Rough Guide to ICE vs Electric Drive Today ICE Well to Tank 95% Tank to Wheels 13% Overall Efficiency 12% Electric Drive Primary to Battery 30% Battery to Wheels 85% Overall Efficiency 25% Relative emissions per unit primary: Oil = .75 Electricity = 0.5x1(coal) + 0.2x0.5(gas) + 0.3x0(nuclear, hydro, etc.) = 0.6 Emissions for electric about 40% of ICE 20 Moving a Vehicle – Drag & Roll Friction P= Cdρv3A/2 + CrNfv Vehicle Drag Coefficients Long cylinder 0.82 Typical big truck 0.6 Best bus 0.425 Typical SUV or pickup 0.35-0.45 Typical car 0.25-0.35 Mini-Cooper 0.35 Tesla 0.35 Ferrari 0.34 Chevy Volt 0.30 Toyota Avalon 0.29 Prius 0.26 GM EV-1 0.19 Nuna (sunrace winner) 0.07 21 Minimum horsepow er required for a Prius-sized car 25 Horsepower 20 Drag HP 15 Roll Resistence HP 10 Total HP 5 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Speed Horsepower required at the drive wheels for constant speed driving 22 (1500 kg vehicle, good tires, good road). Vehicle Power Requirements Vehicle EV-1 Prius Avalon Expedition Big Truck Weight (lbs) 2,940 3,040 3,570 5,900 80,000 CdA (ft sq2) 3.8 7.3 8.6 17.2 53 Cr 0.007 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Power 4.4 hp 3.3 KW 6.4 hp 4.8 KW 7.5 hp 5.6 KW 13.8 hp 10.3 KW 129 hp 96 KW 14.5 hp 10.8 KW 22.6 hp 16.8 KW 26.7 hp 19.9 KW 51.1 hp 38.1 KW 272 hp 203 KW 10.5 10.8 12.7 21.0 285 80 (6 sec) 62 (8 sec) 73 (8 sec) 120 (8 sec) 218 (60 sec) 40 mph Power 70 mph ΔP(KW) 0.03% grade 60mph <P>(KW) 0-60 mph 23 Some Things to Think About • Energy storage is important for PHEV, BEV & Fuel Cells. • 100 mile range eliminates 85% of gasoline. • It takes little power to keep cruising. Even at 70 mph an Avalon (large car) only needs 0.28 KWh per mile. • The big power hog is acceleration (in trains too). • Are capacitors better than batteries for surge power? • Is the efficiency of energy recovery in braking good enough? • What is beyond Li-Ion? Are we investing enough in electro-chemistry? 24 Outline Energy Issues Transportation Other Storage Issues 25 Daily Load Shape in California Hourly Demand July 24, 2007 Demand in Megawatt-Hours 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hours of the Day Actual System Load Scheduled Load Hour Ahead Forecast 2-Day Ahead Forecast 26 Power for all electric fleet is available • Night demand of about 50% of daytime is typical of the country • 3 trillion light vehicle miles per year at 0.25 KW-hr/mile requires a daily dose of 250 GW of electricity for 8 hours. • The present system can supply it at night without expansion of capacity or the grid. 27 Peak Load vs. Base Load Peak Load Base Load 28 Solar Electric Output Fraction vs Time-of-Day (California Summer – clear day) 29 Solar Thermal Electric • Barstow Solar 2 Power Tower (photo courtesy of NREL) 30 31 31 Problems in Greening the Grid • • • • Solar photovoltaic is not a good match to peak demand Solar thermo-electric can peak shift Wind is highly variable There is no good study of correlations in wind over broad areas • Back up required for wind is equal to wind maximum generation • If wind is large component, only effective back up is probably natural gas • Batteries not good for either application 32 Other Possible Apps • Grid need 1%-2% for smoothing fast fluctuations (zero net). Cars plugged in? • 2%-5% needed for load balancing (10s of minutes) = about 20 GW-h (10 million PHEV40s) • Accelerating 4000 tons of freight to 100 mph needs 1000 KW-h and 6 MW to do it in 10 minutes 33 Backup Slides 34 35 How Long Will Oil Last? • Int’l energy Agency projects oil demand increases at 1.6%/year in normal circumstances • We will run through 4.5 trillion barrels by 2075 • There may be more, but it will be expensive • The greenhouse gas and national security stars are aligned toward a switch from oil for transport 36 Energy Intensity & Emissions Intensity ENERGY = POPULATION × (GDP/POPULATION) × (ENERGY/GDP) EMISSIONS = POPULATION × (GDP/POPULATION) × (ENERGY/GDP) × (EMISSIONS/ENERGY) 37 Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2007 DOE-EIA 38 39 40 41 Prius Table Speed (MPH) Drag HP Roll Resistance HP Total HP 0 0 0 0 10 0.05 0.81 0.86 20 0.40 1.62 2.02 30 1.33 2.43 3.76 40 3.16 3.24 6.40 50 6.18 4.05 10.23 60 10.68 4.87 15.55 70 16.95 5.62 22.57 42 43 Top 10 Greenhouse Gas Emitters Region or Country Population (millions) CO2 Emissions (million tonnes) GDP (PPP) billion (2000$) GDP (PPP) per capita World 6432 27136 54618 8492 United States 297 5817 10996 37063 PRC 1305 5060 7842 6012 EU 492 4275 11608 23605 Russia 143 1544 1381 9648 Japan 128 1214 3474 27190 India 1095 1147 3362 3072 Korea 48 449 958 19837 South Africa 47 330 463 9884 Brazil 186 329 1393 7475 Saudi Arabia 23 320 323 13977 44