BurtonRichter AlmadenInstitute2009

Presentation at
Almaden Institute 2009
August 18, 2009
Burton Richter
Freeman Spogli Institute of International Studies Senior Fellow
Paul Pigott Professor in the Physical Sciences Emeritus
Stanford University
Former Director
SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory
1
Outline
Energy Issues
Transportation
Other Storage Issues
2
Reference Scenario:
Primary Energy Demand by Region
10 000
Mtoe
8 000
Developing countries become the
biggest energy consumers within
a decade
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
1980
OECD
1990
2000
2010
Developing countries
Source OECD-IEA2008
2020
2030
Transition economies
3
IIASA Projection of Future Energy Demand-Scenario A1 (High Growth)
IIASA projections show that energy demand in the 21st century is dominated by the growth of the
developing nations. (Source: International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis and World Energy
Council Global Energy Perspectives
4
Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel
Energy Source
Percentage of
TPES
Percent of World
CO2 Emissions
Oil
34
40
Coal
26
40
Natural Gas
21
20
Nuclear Power
6
0
Hydroelectric
2
0
Combustibles
10
0
Other
1
0
5
Oil Supply and Cost Curve
Availability of oil resources as a function of economic price
Source: IEA (2005)
6
7
Fraction of Electricity Generation
by Fuel 2007
Fuel
U.S.
World
Coal
50%
40%
Natural Gas
22%
20%
Oil
0%
6%
Nuclear
20%
16%
Hydroelectric
6%
16%
Biomass
1%
1.3%
Wind
0.6%
0.5%
Geothermal
0.3%
0.3%
Solar
0.1%
0.02%
Source: EIA 2007; IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
8
CO2 Emissions per unit Energy from Fossil
Fuels
Source
Chemical
Formula
Combustion
Products
Relative GHG
Emission per Unit
of Energy
Coal
C
CO2
1
Gasoline
C8 H18
8 CO2 + 9 H2O 0.75
Natural Gas
C H4
CO2 + 2 H2O
0.5
9
Cutting Oil & Decarbonizing
• Electricity – Fuel Switching + Efficiency (one GWe-
yr of coal electricity gives 8 million tonnes of CO2; natural gas gives
1/3 of coal, nuclear, big hydro & Renewables give zero)
• Transportation – Efficiency + Electrification (50
mpg for gasoline; decarbonized electricity)
• Buildings – Efficiency
(80% of building use is electricity)
• Industry – Efficiency
• Agriculture – ???? (30% of world and 20% of U.S. emissions
from this sector)
10
11
Outline
Energy Issues
Transportation
Other Storage Issues
12
13
14
15
16
17
PHEV-40
cuts gasoline
by 65%
PHEV-100
cuts gasoline
by 85%
18
Where does the energy go?
How energy flows for a vehicle powered by an internal-combustion engine.
The diagram shows the energy uses and losses from a typical vehicle.
19
A Rough Guide to ICE vs Electric Drive Today
ICE
Well to Tank
95%
Tank to Wheels 13%
Overall Efficiency 12%
Electric Drive
Primary to Battery 30%
Battery to Wheels 85%
Overall Efficiency 25%
Relative emissions per unit primary:
Oil = .75
Electricity = 0.5x1(coal) + 0.2x0.5(gas) +
0.3x0(nuclear, hydro, etc.) = 0.6
Emissions for electric about 40% of ICE
20
Moving a Vehicle – Drag & Roll Friction
P= Cdρv3A/2 + CrNfv
Vehicle Drag Coefficients
Long cylinder
0.82
Typical big truck
0.6
Best bus
0.425
Typical SUV or pickup
0.35-0.45
Typical car
0.25-0.35
Mini-Cooper
0.35
Tesla
0.35
Ferrari
0.34
Chevy Volt
0.30
Toyota Avalon
0.29
Prius
0.26
GM EV-1
0.19
Nuna
(sunrace winner)
0.07
21
Minimum horsepow er required for a Prius-sized car
25
Horsepower
20
Drag HP
15
Roll Resistence HP
10
Total HP
5
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Speed
Horsepower required at the drive wheels for constant speed driving
22
(1500 kg vehicle, good tires, good road).
Vehicle Power Requirements
Vehicle
EV-1
Prius
Avalon
Expedition
Big Truck
Weight (lbs)
2,940
3,040
3,570
5,900
80,000
CdA (ft sq2)
3.8
7.3
8.6
17.2
53
Cr
0.007
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Power
4.4 hp
3.3 KW
6.4 hp
4.8 KW
7.5 hp
5.6 KW
13.8 hp
10.3 KW
129 hp
96 KW
14.5 hp
10.8 KW
22.6 hp
16.8 KW
26.7 hp
19.9 KW
51.1 hp
38.1 KW
272 hp
203 KW
10.5
10.8
12.7
21.0
285
80
(6 sec)
62
(8 sec)
73
(8 sec)
120
(8 sec)
218
(60 sec)
40 mph
Power
70 mph
ΔP(KW) 0.03%
grade 60mph
<P>(KW)
0-60 mph
23
Some Things to Think About
• Energy storage is important for PHEV, BEV & Fuel Cells.
• 100 mile range eliminates 85% of gasoline.
• It takes little power to keep cruising. Even at 70 mph an
Avalon (large car) only needs 0.28 KWh per mile.
• The big power hog is acceleration (in trains too).
• Are capacitors better than batteries for surge power?
• Is the efficiency of energy recovery in braking good
enough?
• What is beyond Li-Ion? Are we investing enough in
electro-chemistry?
24
Outline
Energy Issues
Transportation
Other Storage Issues
25
Daily Load Shape in California
Hourly Demand July 24, 2007
Demand in Megawatt-Hours
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hours of the Day
Actual System Load
Scheduled Load
Hour Ahead Forecast
2-Day Ahead Forecast
26
Power for all electric fleet is available
• Night demand of about 50% of daytime is
typical of the country
• 3 trillion light vehicle miles per year at 0.25
KW-hr/mile requires a daily dose of 250
GW of electricity for 8 hours.
• The present system can supply it at night
without expansion of capacity or the grid.
27
Peak Load vs. Base Load
Peak Load
Base Load
28
Solar Electric Output Fraction vs Time-of-Day
(California Summer – clear day)
29
Solar Thermal Electric
• Barstow Solar 2 Power Tower (photo courtesy of NREL)
30
31
31
Problems in Greening the Grid
•
•
•
•
Solar photovoltaic is not a good match to peak demand
Solar thermo-electric can peak shift
Wind is highly variable
There is no good study of correlations in wind over broad
areas
• Back up required for wind is equal to wind maximum
generation
• If wind is large component, only effective back up is
probably natural gas
• Batteries not good for either application
32
Other Possible Apps
• Grid need 1%-2% for smoothing fast
fluctuations (zero net). Cars plugged in?
• 2%-5% needed for load balancing (10s of
minutes) = about 20 GW-h (10 million
PHEV40s)
• Accelerating 4000 tons of freight to 100
mph needs 1000 KW-h and 6 MW to do it
in 10 minutes
33
Backup Slides
34
35
How Long Will Oil Last?
• Int’l energy Agency projects oil demand
increases at 1.6%/year in normal circumstances
• We will run through 4.5 trillion barrels by 2075
• There may be more, but it will be expensive
• The greenhouse gas and national security stars
are aligned toward a switch from oil for transport
36
Energy Intensity & Emissions Intensity
ENERGY = POPULATION
× (GDP/POPULATION)
× (ENERGY/GDP)
EMISSIONS = POPULATION
× (GDP/POPULATION)
× (ENERGY/GDP)
× (EMISSIONS/ENERGY)
37
Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2007 DOE-EIA
38
39
40
41
Prius Table
Speed (MPH)
Drag HP
Roll
Resistance HP
Total HP
0
0
0
0
10
0.05
0.81
0.86
20
0.40
1.62
2.02
30
1.33
2.43
3.76
40
3.16
3.24
6.40
50
6.18
4.05
10.23
60
10.68
4.87
15.55
70
16.95
5.62
22.57
42
43
Top 10 Greenhouse Gas Emitters
Region or Country
Population
(millions)
CO2 Emissions
(million tonnes)
GDP (PPP)
billion (2000$)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
World
6432
27136
54618
8492
United States
297
5817
10996
37063
PRC
1305
5060
7842
6012
EU
492
4275
11608
23605
Russia
143
1544
1381
9648
Japan
128
1214
3474
27190
India
1095
1147
3362
3072
Korea
48
449
958
19837
South Africa
47
330
463
9884
Brazil
186
329
1393
7475
Saudi Arabia
23
320
323
13977
44
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