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Price Wars and Niche Discovery in an
Information Economy
Christopher H. Brooks
Edmund H. Durfee
ABSTRACT
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Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for
personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are
not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies
bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. To copy otherwise, to
republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific
permission and/or a fee.
EC’00, October 17-20, 2000, Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Copyright 2000 ACM 1-58113-272-7/00/0010 .. ’ 5.00
Rajarshi Das
1. INTRODUCTION
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3. NICHE DISCOVERY
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Producer
Model of
Opponent
1. Get prediction
of opponent’s
price
2. Generate best
response given
prediction
(or explore)
3. Offer Price
4. Receive Profit
Consumer
Population
3a. Offer Price
5. Update model given
profit and opponent’s
actual price
RBF network model
of profit landscape
Opponent
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„ U3[l<W5]:nJqX_CW…l<UB]WP`vfmXx_'bEd|`mW5b [VCW5].r:†jV‚PW…fmX|_'bEd „ U3wCVC]:b
nMW\deXt[WPdoTMUHVdoWH€JfX]WP‚\fc]LWPd=‡#_CWkX_CW\[fXdo_CU3wC`h]xWkˆT`mU3[W‰UE[WkˆT`mUHfX
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‡vWPfmpH_JXW5]nJqaX_CW#b3p3WPVJX5 dvWPdeXfml…bEXW#U „ X_CW „ [gbE‚\XfmUHV…U „ X_WT[U3X
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T`mU3[WH€)fmX0TMWk[oXw[nCdYX_CW3b3`mwCW|U „ X_WnMWPdeXz[WPdoTMU3VCdoWHr<—CU3[0W5bE‚k_
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Xfm‚Pw`hbE[aW\ˆLTC`mU3[gb XfmUHVQTMU3`hfm‚\qfmdX_CW|nMWPdeX0TMUHdodofmnC`mWHr<‹‰_'bEX0fmd0VCUEX
X_WzžJwCWPdeXfmU3V˜‡vWzbE[WXo[oqLfmVCp0XUbEVCde‡‰Wk[5rsŸVCdeXW5b3]8€B‡‰WbE[WfmVJXW\[o
W\deXW5]xfmV|_U5‡:X_CWvTMWk[ „ U3[l…bEVC‚PWvU „ b›`hWPbE[VCfmVpT[UB]LwC‚PW\[=‚k_Cb3VCp3WPd
bEdvX_CW#‚g_'b [gb3‚\XW\[fmdeXfm‚PdU „ X_W›TL[UHn`hW\lœ‚g_'bEVCpHW3r†jVC‚PWYb3V…bEpHWPVJX
]LWPdofmpHVW\[#wCVC]W\[deXgbEV']dv_CU5‡ X_CWYT[UHn`mWPl¡‚g_'bE[gbE‚\XW\[fmdeXfm‚Pd#fmV¢'wL
W\VC‚PWaX_CW]Lf£<‚PwC`XŸqU „ `mW5b [VCfmVCpL€)_W|UE[zdo_CWx‚5b3VX_CWPVUHTLXfml<fh•\W
bx`hWPbE[VCfmVp…b3`mpHUE[fmX_l „ U3[#X_fhdXgbEdoŠ.r
3.2 Experimental Setup
š,W‚\UHV']LwC‚\XWP]zXŸ‡‰U›doW\Xd=U „ W\ˆLTMW\[fml<WPVJXd8fhVB‘U3`mLfmVpYTL[UB]wC‚\W\[d
X_CbEX)VCWPW5]LW5]jXU›`hWPbE[Vab3nMU3wX=‚\UHVCdowl<W\[T[W „ W\[WPVC‚\WPdPrts¤VX_W[deX
WkˆTMWk[fhl<W\VBX5€3X_CW‰[WP`hb XfhHW›dofm•PW›U „ X_W#VCfm‚k_WPdt‡bEdv3bE[fmW5]8€Jb3V']xfhV
X_WdoWP‚PU3V'].€X_W|VBwClxnMW\[U „ fXW\[gbEXfmU3VCd0W5b3‚g_,TL[UB]w‚PW\[z_CbH]XU
`mW5b [VƒnMW „ U3[WzfXd#UHTCTMU3VCWPVJX‚g_'bEVCp3W5]fXd#T[fm‚PWj‡‰b3d#3bE[fmW5]8r‹‰_W
Tw[TMU3doWzU „ X_fhd‡‰b3d#XU]WkXW\[l<fmVCW_U ‡¥W5bEdeqŒfXYb3‚kXw'b3`m`qfhd „ U3[
b…T[UB]LwC‚PWk[YXU˜]fmdo‚PU ‘Wk[0b<VCfm‚k_WHrYs¤VƒX_CWaT[W\LfmU3wCdjdoW\‚\XfmUHV€M‡vW
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š,W<b3dodowl<WxX_W „ U3`m`hU5‡#fmVCpdo‚PW\V'bE[fmUL¬ab3VfhV‚PwClxnMWPVJXTL[UB]wC‚\W\[
fmddoW\`h`mfmVCp:fmV „ U3[l…b XfmUHV pHUJUB]LdŒbEdŒbAl<UHVCU3TMUH`mfmdeX˜wCdofmVCp™b,TMWk[o
bE[oXfm‚P`mWxdo‚k_W5]w`hW0XU˜b<‚PUHVdowCl<W\[YTMUHTwC`hbEXfmUHV‚PU3VCdofmdeXfmVCp˜U „ X_CW
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3.3 Niche Size
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šQW0wdoW5]^b3VWPVBBf[UHVCl<W\VBX›‚PU3VCdofmdeXfmVCp…U „ X¤‡vU…VCfm‚k_WPd›U „ ‚PUHVL
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T[UB]LwC‚PWk[d›do_UHw`c]˜TCwL[dowCWjdoW\T'bE[gb XW0VCfm‚k_WPdf „ VCfm‚g_CW± ¼ fmd#l<U3[W
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dofm•PW›U „ VCfm‚g_CW± ¼ fmV‚\[W5b3doW\dP€LXgb [pHW\XfmVpadoW\T'bE[gb XWYVfm‚k_WPdnMW\‚PUHl<WPd
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300
Incumbent
Entrant
Optimal Per-article
Optimal Bundle
Aggregate Profit per Iteration
250
200
150
100
50
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Iteration
300
Incumbent
Entrant
Optimal Per-article
Optimal Bundle
Aggregate Profit per Iteration
250
200
150
100
50
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Iteration
300
Incumbent
Entrant
Optimal Profit from Niche 1
Optimal Profit from Niche 2
Optimal Per-article profit
Aggregate Profit per Iteration
250
200
150
100
3.4 Varying Rate of Change
50
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Iteration
300
Incumbent
Entrant
Optimal Profit from Niche 1
Optimal Profit from Niche 2
Optimal Per-article profit
250
Aggregate Profit per Iteration
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50
100
150
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300
300
Aggregate Profit per Iteration
Incumbent
Entrant
Optimal Per-article
Optimal Bundle
Incumbent
Entrant
Optimal Per-article
Optimal Bundle
250
250
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200
150
150
100
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50
0
0
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Iteration
300
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0
0
50
100
150
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300
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350
Incumbent
Entrant
Optimal Per-article
Optimal Bundle
300
250
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50
0
0
50
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500
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